You a math student/teacher or something? It seems that the prizes drop is some order. Today I had 10 games & got 5 parts + 1 mono. It’s 1 drop less then yesterday. And the same thing was for entire week. 50-70% good stuff in first 10 games. After that it drops… And to exclude luck as much as possible I allways took the loot at the edge of screens. So if the loot rotates I catch it every few rotations. Later I did edge loot first 10 games then center loot next 10 games, I got aproxx thd same drop rate as before…,
Am I the only one who doesn’t experience any kind of drop off? Sometimes I get unlucky and I don’t get any pieces, but the longest no-piece streak was 2 Fire Support for me. Maybe it’s because Stingray has other drop rates.
Sorry I don’t have much time to do the full analysis. Just put the results in the spreadsheet.
To avoid ban for spreading false rumors and pretending I know the game economy, I want to emphasize, that those results are based on mine and only mine experience. Data series for this chart is taken only from my game results, and formula is pretty simple: sum(parts in all games of the same number in last 8 days)/number of loot slots. Of course at game 10 probability is not 0, but it is very low, however to actually calculate it with 95% confidence we will need much more data.
good bye niri u have banned
Am I the only one who doesn’t experience any kind of drop off? Sometimes I get unlucky and I don’t get any pieces, but the longest no-piece streak was 2 Fire Support for me. Maybe it’s because Stingray has other drop rates.
Quite possibly! If you’ll notice, literally everyone else in this thread is grinding for the Brokk with 4 maxed rank 13 ships.
Sorry I don’t have much time to do the full analysis. Just put the results in the spreadsheet.
To avoid ban for spreading false rumors and pretending I know the game economy, I want to emphasize, that those results are based on mine and only mine experience. Data series for this chart is taken only from my game results, and formula is pretty simple: sum(parts in all games of the same number in last 9 days)/number of loot slots. Of course at game 10 probability is not 0, but it is very low, however to actually calculate it with 95% confidence we will need much more data.
Niri, where is the raw data for this? Just curious. Also, how many games did you base this graph off of?
You should try to plot total monocrystals accumulated vs total games played and do a linear regression of it to cross-check Statue’s data. And please provide R^2 value too
Niri, where is the raw data for this? Just curious. Also, how many games did you base this graph off of?
You should try to plot total monocrystals accumulated vs total games played and do a linear regression of it to cross-check Statue’s data. And please provide R^2 value too
C’mon guys have you not heard? Its random. :004j:
Don’t go grinding past 8 thats my 2 cents, 8 is a good day.
Niri, where is the raw data for this? Just curious. Also, how many games did you base this graph off of?
You should try to plot total monocrystals accumulated vs total games played and do a linear regression of it to cross-check Statue’s data. And please provide R^2 value too
Raw data is in second post of this thread.
Actually I would have to calculate the monocrystal drop rate, I have some theory about it, but it would be speculation and one person was banned for speculating about economy in this game, so I will refrain from it.
Also - requested regression and R^2 coefficient - It doesn’t fit very well yet, you need much more raw data for it, but TBH I was expecting something closer to log or exp function.
Hope it helps.
PS. As before - this is my opinion, not representing in any way views of the developers of this game. I used data from my own games, I can be completely wrong and your results can vary from mine, because as we were told - this is completely random.
u banned too
Something is wrong.
On one hand niri is NEVER wrong on the other devs love to hide info from playerbase.
WE NEED THE TRUTH!!!
Mulder time
Something is wrong.
On one hand niri is NEVER wrong on the other devs love to hide info from playerbase.
WE NEED THE TRUTH!!!
Something is wrong.
On one hand niri is NEVER wrong on the other devs love to hide info from playerbase.
WE NEED THE TRUTH!!!
lol, just buy those ships for dollar and euro and make the devs happy! they work so hard to make this game enjoyable and good for those loyal players like you guys [*sarcasm]
What you get in the loot is already too much, I don’t get whats the problem. 
My new business idea is a random shop. You can come to me, give me money and I’ll give you randomly something. PM me for my paypal account id if you interested 
[*this is a joke, please please please don’t ban be because I’m right and I know the math and I can calculate, I can be wrong if you like. I like to be here.]
i think it was meant to be a long term mission to get ship parts, while monocrystals got introduced in secondary goals and occasional drops (you have to admit, thats cool)
i have to admit, as long as there were sidemissions (get 15! now get 20!) with some extra bonuses, it was easier to do.
after these two side missions its: and now do 565…
otherwise, if the droprate never really sinks to 0, having a higher dropchance each day at start isnt bad per se, and the dropcurve niri theorized about looks allright, except it should never drop to 0; and a double drop should have more this curve;
Well - as I said before - it would make much more sense if it was log function of the number of games instead of linear, but tbh it can be anything - linear till game number 7 then logarithmic, or spline or if it just flats out at 2% per slot. I just wanted to see if I have any trend regarding parts drop in relation to the number of games per day. After ten days:
I think I conclude my research on this topic. Doing it is boring as hell I spent easily over 30 hours flying ships I don’t like to get that data.
Not just ship parts, the same goes for berry and neo too, after more than 10 games, I noticed that berry and neo drop rate decreased dramatically, all I get is mono after a couple games if lucky.
lol, just buy those ships for dollar and euro and make the devs happy! they work so hard to make this game enjoyable and good for those loyal players like you guys [*sarcasm]
What you get in the loot is already too much, I don’t get whats the problem.
My new business idea is a random shop. You can come to me, give me money and I’ll give you randomly something. PM me for my paypal account id if you interested
[*this is a joke, please please please don’t ban be because I’m right and I know the math and I can calculate, I can be wrong if you like. I like to be here.]
hahahahahaa lol
good bye niri u have banned
I’ll just leave it here just in case.
3.6. It is prohibited to disseminate false information, regardless of the degree of awareness of the author
The accounts of users in violation of this rule are subject to the following sanctions:
1 violation—3 day ban on the publication of threads and posts
2 violation—7 days ban on the publication of threads and posts
3 violation—30 day ban on the publication of threads and posts
I’ll just leave it here just in case.
3.6. It is prohibited to disseminate false information, regardless of the degree of awareness of the author
The accounts of users in violation of this rule are subject to the following sanctions:
1 violation—3 day ban on the publication of threads and posts
2 violation—7 days ban on the publication of threads and posts
3 violation—30 day ban on the publication of threads and posts
How do we know if something is false when we don’t know what’s true o.O? In this case we probably can’t make out the exact number or equation, but decreased drop rate is a fact 
Well - as I said before - it would make much more sense if it was log function of the number of games instead of linear, but tbh it can be anything - linear till game number 7 then logarithmic, or spline or if it just flats out at 2% per slot. I just wanted to see if I have any trend regarding parts drop in relation to the number of games per day. After ten days:
part drop rate with regression log lin.jpg
I think I conclude my research on this topic. Doing it is boring as hell I spent easily over 30 hours flying ships I don’t like to get that data.
I would say that the linear regression better explains the data actually, simply because of the higher R^2 value.