Guide: How to calculate % chance to win based on ship composition

This guide will show you your team’s chance of winning a match based on ship composition. 


For the purpose of this calculation, cap all values at 90% First, you must compute your team’s gross percentage chance of winning. 1) Add up the positive modifers and then subtract the negative modifiers.  2) Add up the positive modifiers and then subtract the negatives for the opposing team.  3) Next, take which ever team’s net chance of winning is higher and subtract the other team’s net chance of winning.  Add this value to 50%.  The value is your team’s chance of winning a game.  If the lesser teams value is negative then add that value to the greater teams value instead of subtracting.  If both team’s values are negative then take the difference between them as a positive and add that number to 50%.  Remember to cap values at 90% due to the chaotic nature of online gaming.


General Percentage Modifiers

+20% per 4 man clan squad on your team

+10% per 3 man clan squad on your team

+5% per 2 man clan squad on your team

-10% per long range frigate on your team

-3% per each gunship or tackler on your team

+10% per engineer on your team with a maximum bonus of 30%

+5% per guard frigate on your team


Special Percentage Modifiers

-30% if your captain in recon is flying a long range frigate

-30% if your team in recon has no engineers.

-15% if your captain in recon is flying a tackler or gunship

-5% if your captain in recon is flying an engineer

+5% per interceptor in detonation

what’s wrong with gunship or tackler? they are good classes

I’m sorry, it’s nothing personal, but one of the things i dislike the most are numbers ostentatiously conjured out of human imagination and/plus without facts, gameplay analysis or statistics to back them up. The other thing are sweeping generalisations across the board. That’s not limited to Online games.


So to give some direct feedback BossAwesome: No.

Don’t take too seriously. Not a fact, just an opinion.


+X% per Y man clan squad on your team… +1

-10% per long range frigate on your team… +1

-3% per each gunship or tackler on your team…   If it’s quite a good player then fine, otherwise it might as well be a bot

+10% per engineer on your team with a maximum bonus of 30%…  +1

+5% per guard frigate on your team… not in detonation


-30% if your captain in recon is flying a long range frigate… +1

-30% if your team in recon has no engineers… +1

-15% if your captain in recon is flying a tackler or gunship… could argue

-5% if your captain in recon is flying an engineer… if you go for frig captain, then take guard, allthou Emp guardgineers are close by

+5% per interceptor in detonation… +1


Could also go further, and add squad tags

lets take a 4 v 4 Domination


4 man premade; 3 engineers + 1 guard for maximum score +55%

  • versus -

4 random interceptors a mix of covops and ecms


and you imply the premade will win more than twice over the inty’s ?


or take a 2 v 2 beacon hunt


2 man premade; 2 engineers for maximum score of +25%

  • versus -

1 Gunship + 1 Command random pair, penalized -3%


and engineer squad will win 3 in 4 matches?



Fleet composition affects engagement parameters. Options if you will. What you can and cannot do, who will reach what first. The battefield boundaries etc.


Aggregate of incidents or micro interactions between the elements are what affects the final outcome directly ie. how ships approach and engage targets; targets privy to incoming threat or not. This is the intangible human skill - game intelligence factor.


Why arbitrary generalizations seem to make sense correlate directly with the team’s understanding of composition or lack of eg. your inty team understands that they cannot simply beeline rush headlong into a frigball in a recon mode or they don’t (very simplified example)


But at a higher level where the average pilot’s understanding are close to without error (say top corp tournament), that is to say everyone starts to know what they can and should do per given fleet composition - generalized formulas become useless artifacts of the imagination. Outcomes of individual engagements are what matters.


the 4v4 and 2v2 examples above illustrates this at a smaller scale albeit digestible bite-sized scenarios

it’s easier to form a mental replay of the micro incidents in those hypothetical face-offs and I’m sure any experienced pilot can tell you, those numbers in the original post mean jack.

C’mon Kine, you buzzkill.  :lol:

The actuall numbers ar taken out of the a**. It’s simply to point out things that may, or may not increase your chance of winning the match. Besides match usually have 8+ players on each side.

boooo - ok my bad. i coach competitive teams in a previous life. hype and urban legends are the biggest obstacle to achieving your max potential and this thread probably struck a nerve somewhere. i used to loathe sitting around and listen to lower division coaches talk about ‘Golden Rules’ and ‘Magik Numbers’ or ‘Secret Formulas’ and totally downplay hard work, knowledge and more hard work. Like as if your team won because you spawned more frigates. Knowing how to use those frigates and why you should use them didn’t matter.


Sheeeet. According to this; 12 frigs vs 12 frigs = draws all the time. Hardly true.

Boys, only few word.

Need smart player.

Me i can kill with any class and take me in top scores .

Another thing is to have good sinergy with your team. (have more smart player)

Is crude but the true.

If you feel my word wrong just ask to ho know me.

While the numbers arent exact and it dont count skill at all, it is fun to read and have alot of sense in it.

Your system is just the slightest bit arbitrary, don’t you think? I won’t spend a hour picking apart everything, but:

-just because there’s a 3-4 man corp squad on a team doesn’t necessarily give that team an advantage. I’ve seen many corp squads with pilots having around 1000 destroyed ship rating and they were more of a drag than a help.

-a tackler or gunship in the right hands is devastating - especially a tackler. One or two good tacklers can dominate a Detonation game, for example.

I somewhat agree with your long range frigate numbers though! (Actually, it’s probably a little low).

To do this for real, the numbers you should be looking at are DSR, W/L and maybe avg kills/assists.

Interceptors give bonuses in Detonation? Maybe in Tiers 1 and 2, but they only succeed by going for a quick-plant when people are distracted. You want a truly unstoppable force? Frigball push. Seriously, once a Cerberus 2 gets within planting range of the Beacon you have no chance whatsoever of getting the bomb to drop unless you’ve already crippled the ship long before. I didn’t even have to dodge the last time I managed it - I just parked motionless and tanked the incoming damage until the bomb went off.